Wansley Lumber is considering the purchase of a paper company, which would require an

initial investment of $300 million. Wansley estimates that the paper company would

provide net cash flows of $40 million at the end of each of the next 20 years. The cost of

capital for the paper company is 13%.

a. Wansley realizes that the cash flows in Years 1 to 20 might be $30 million per year or

$50 million per year, with a 50% probability of each outcome. Because of the nature of

the purchase contract, Wansley can sell the company 2 years after purchase (at Year 2

in this case) for $280 million if it no longer wants to own it. Given this additional information,

does decision-tree analysis indicate that it makes sense to purchase the paper

company? Again, assume that all cash flows are discounted at 13%.