Week

Miles

1

17

2

21

3

19

4

23

5

18

6

16

7

20

8

18

9

22

10

20

11

15

12

22

Passenger miles flown on Northeast Airlines, commuter firm serving the Boston hub, were as follows for the past 12 weeks.(Copy and paste the data below into the QM for Windows or another appropriate software program. Note, when you copy and paste, highlight an area bigger than the table so that the pasting works properly.)

Question 1(3 points)

The above is a causal forecasting model.

Question 1 options:

True

False

Question 2(3 points)

The model parameters are assumed to be certain.

Question 2 options:

True

False

Question 3(7 points)

Using the 3 week moving average, what would be the forecast for week 11?

Question 3 options:

19.41

19.75

20

19

18

18.75

Question 4(7 points)

Using the 4 week moving average, what would be the forecast for week 11?

Question 4 options:

18

19.75

18.75

19

19.41

20

Question 5(7 points)

Using a3 week weighted average in which miles in the most recent week is given a weight of 2 and sales in the other 2 weeks are each given a weight of 1, what would be the forecast for week 12?

Question 5 options:

20

19.41

18.75

19

19.75

18

Question 6(7 points)

Assuming an initial forecast for week 1 of 17,000 miles, use exponential smoothing to compute miles for weeks 2 through 13. Use alpha = 0.4. What would be the forecast for week 11?

Question 6 options:

19.26

17.97

19.14

19.41

19.94

19.58

Question 7(7 points)

Using the trend projection method, what would be the forecast for week 2?

Question 7 options:

19.58

19.26

19.94

19.41

17.97

19.14

Question 8(6 points)

Using the 3 week moving average, what would be the forecast mean absolute deviation for the model using all the data?

Question 8 options:

2.67

2.97

2.72

2.49

2.06

Question 9(6 points)

Using the 4 week moving average, what would be the forecast mean absolute deviationfor the model using all the data?

Question 9 options:

2.97

2.06

2.72

2.49

2.67

Question 10(6 points)

Using a 3 week weighted averagein which miles in the most recent week is given a weight of 2 and sales in the other 2 weeks are each given a weight of 1, what would be the forecast mean squared error for the model using all the data?

Question 10 options:

11.23

5.85

9.65

10.22

9.13

Question 11(6 points)

Assuming an initial forecast for week 1 of 17,000 miles, use exponential smoothing to compute miles for weeks 2 through 13. Use alpha = 0.4,what would be the forecast mean squared error for the model using all the data?

Question 11 options:

9.13

9.65

10.22

5.85

11.23

Question 12(6 points)

Using the trend projection method,what would be the forecast mean absolute percent error for the model using all the data?

Question 12 options:

13%

15%

16%

11%

14%

Question 13(3 points)

Using mean absolute deviation for the model using all the data, which method of those analyzed previously should be used for next month's forecast?

Question 13 options:

3 month moving average

4 month moving average

trend projection

3 month weighted moving average

exponential smoothing with a 0.4 alpha

Question 14(3 points)

According the mean squared error for the model using all the data, 4 month moving average should be used for the next month's forecast when compared to the other models analyzed previously.

Question 14 options:

True

False

Question 15(3 points)

Using mean absolute percent error for the model using all the data, which method of those analyzed previously should be used for next month's forecast?

Question 15 options:

4 month moving average

3 month weighted moving average

3 month moving average

trend projection

exponential smoothing with a 0.4 alpha