Who Wants To Be a Millionaire?

The show broadcasted on Sunday, February 20, 2000 (Dr. Jonathan Wilks as the player). You may make assumptions as necessary in your solutions, but be sure to justify them. In the following, Jon never revealed his preference to anyone.

(a) At$4,000,goingfor$8,000;ifwrong,endupwith$1,0002 Q: In addition to lima beans, what is the other main vegetable used in the dish known as succotash? (A) Peas (B) Squash (C) Corn (D) Carrots Jon's preference: C, 60%; not C, 40%. Results from asking the audience of 100 people: C, 53%; not C, 47% (with 41% for B). Past experience indicates that at least half of the audience is correct 95% of the time. Should Jon go ahead and choose C?

(b) At$16,000,goingfor$32,000;ifwrong,endupwith$1,000 Q: What Roman emperor was rumored to have declared his horse a high priest of his temple? (A) Caligula (B) Caesar (C) Nero (D) Augustus Jon's preference: A, 60%; not A, 40%. He used the lifeline of asking a friend and his friend chose A. Assume Jon thinks that his friend has a 70% probability of choosing A while A is correct and a 20% probability of choosing A while A is not correct. Should Jon go ahead and choose A?

(c) At$125,000,goingfor$250,000;ifwrong,endupwith$32,000 Q: Which philosopher said, "What does not kill me makes me stronger"? (A) Friedrich Nietzsche (B) Alexander Pope (C) Franz Kafka (D) Karl Marx Jon's preference: A, 45%; B, 10%; C, 15%; D, 30%. He used the lifeline of 50/50 and as a result, B and C were removed. Should he go ahead and choose A? In fact, Jon quit, but he was not necessarily right.

You better think carefully which is more important for Joe: correct decision or more money?

Write a brief report to show how you reason to solve the problems and present your underlying assumptions along with justifications. You may also suggest alternative projects or ways to improve this project.

2 That is, he will get $1, 000 and the game is over if he is wrong, $4, 000 if he quits now, and $8, 000 if he is correct for this question and quits at the next question.