will become a smashing success with smashing success (a flop). (Hint: This information 13. (15 points) Bayes' Theorem. Netflix just releases a new movie to the theaters, Netflix estimate probability 0.30 (30%), which implies that 70% probability it will not be a smashing success (aflop). is called the PRIOR probabilities.) A few days after its release, Rotten Tomatoes (www.rottentomatoes.com latoes (www.rottentomatoes.com) posts a review of this movie on its website. Netrix w e to corporate this new information (review from Rotten Tomatoes to improve the acco success of the movie. Past data collected by Netflix shows that among successful movies at the box office, 15* among the movies that are box-office flops (failures), 90% of them res information is called the LIKELIHOOD FUNCTION.) Rotten Tomatoes posts a POSITIVE review of this movie. what is the probability that this movie wie This is the POSTERIOR probability. SHOW DETAILS OF YOUR CALCULATIONS BELOW. Solution: es to improve the accuracy of its prediction of the ovies at the box office, 75% of them received POSITIVE review. But ce Tops tailures), 90% of them received NEGATIVE review from Rotten Tomatoes. (Hint: This It is the probability that this movie will be a smashing success? Define the following 4 events: S+ = the movies will be a smashing success. RT+ = Positive review from Rotten Tomatoes. 5- = the movies will be a flop. RT-- Negative review from Rotten Tomatoes. The prior probabilities (2 points) P(S+) =_ ; P(S-) = The Likelihood Function (4 points): P (RT+IS+) = P (RT-S+) = P (RT-S-) = P (RT+ | 5-) = The JOINT probabilities for the 2-way table (4 points) P (RT+ and S+) = P(RT+ S+) * P/S+) = P (RT+ and 5-) = P(RT+ / S-) * P(5-) = P (RT- and S+) = P(RT- S+) * P(S+) =- P(RT- and S-) = P(RT-15-) * P/S-) = The Two-Way able: RT+ RT- TOTAL S+ S- TOTAL 1.00 What is the probability that the movie will be a smashing success if it receives a POSITIVE review from Rotten Tomatoes (5 points)? Answer: PI 5+RT+) = Fall 2019, will become a smashing success with smashing success (a flop). (Hint: This information 13. (15 points) Bayes' Theorem. Netflix just releases a new movie to the theaters, Netflix estimate probability 0.30 (30%), which implies that 70% probability it will not be a smashing success (aflop). is called the PRIOR probabilities.) A few days after its release, Rotten Tomatoes (www.rottentomatoes.com latoes (www.rottentomatoes.com) posts a review of this movie on its website. Netrix w e to corporate this new information (review from Rotten Tomatoes to improve the acco success of the movie. Past data collected by Netflix shows that among successful movies at the box office, 15* among the movies that are box-office flops (failures), 90% of them res information is called the LIKELIHOOD FUNCTION.) Rotten Tomatoes posts a POSITIVE review of this movie. what is the probability that this movie wie This is the POSTERIOR probability. SHOW DETAILS OF YOUR CALCULATIONS BELOW. Solution: es to improve the accuracy of its prediction of the ovies at the box office, 75% of them received POSITIVE review. But ce Tops tailures), 90% of them received NEGATIVE review from Rotten Tomatoes. (Hint: This It is the probability that this movie will be a smashing success? Define the following 4 events: S+ = the movies will be a smashing success. RT+ = Positive review from Rotten Tomatoes. 5- = the movies will be a flop. RT-- Negative review from Rotten Tomatoes. The prior probabilities (2 points) P(S+) =_ ; P(S-) = The Likelihood Function (4 points): P (RT+IS+) = P (RT-S+) = P (RT-S-) = P (RT+ | 5-) = The JOINT probabilities for the 2-way table (4 points) P (RT+ and S+) = P(RT+ S+) * P/S+) = P (RT+ and 5-) = P(RT+ / S-) * P(5-) = P (RT- and S+) = P(RT- S+) * P(S+) =- P(RT- and S-) = P(RT-15-) * P/S-) = The Two-Way able: RT+ RT- TOTAL S+ S- TOTAL 1.00 What is the probability that the movie will be a smashing success if it receives a POSITIVE review from Rotten Tomatoes (5 points)? Answer: PI 5+RT+) = Fall 2019
