Question
You are asked to select a contractor for your new project. Below you can see the details for each one, considering the initial cost and
You are asked to select a contractor for your new project. Below you can see the details for each one, considering the initial cost and involved risks and by using the defined method, decide which contractor do you choose? and why?
Contractor A initial cost is $110,000 . We estimate that there is a 50% chance that this contractor will be 90 days late and our contract with the main client specifies that we must pay a delay penalty of $1,000 per calendar day for every day we deliver late.
Contractor B initial cost is $140,000. We know that it poses a low 10% chance of being late, and only 30 days late at that. and our customer will impose on us the same $1,000 delay penalty per day for late delivery.
a. | I select contractor A because its final EMV is -170,000 compare to contractor B with EMV equal to -200,000 | |
b. | I select contractor B because its final EMV is -143,000 compare to contractor A with EMV equal to -155,000 | |
c. | Decision tree analysis does not help here because contractor B has EMV equal to -310,000 same as contractor A with EMV equal to -310,000 | |
d. | I select contractor B because its final EMV is -155,000 compare to contractor A with EMV equal to -143,000 |
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