You are in charge of Ohio's Covid Response.

Below you will find an excel spreadsheet with two tabs. One is from the early days of the outbreak in Ohio and the second is a data set that is up-to-date with numbers.

If you were in charge of the response, you might want to look at forecasting future cases to see the direction of outbreak. So create a regression model for the initial outbreak set. Then create a regression model for the current situation. Include this excel spreadsheet with your initial post.

Note: the "Constant is Zero" needs to be included in your regression calculation when doing a regression analysis using the data analysis tool. The reason is clear in common language. Our Y-intercept needs to be zero since there were no cases before the outbreak.

Next, and most importantly, discuss the limitations in the model. What would you consider to be a better dependent variable to measure to make important public policy? What are the weaknesses inherent in the data sets that we need to consider when interpreting the data? What public policy is indicated from what you find from the assessment?

CURRENT:

	Total cases reported to date
1	9-Mar	3
2	10-Mar	3
3	11-Mar	4
4	12-Mar	5
5	13-Mar	13
6	14-Mar	26
7	15-Mar	37
8	16-Mar	50
9	17-Mar	67
10	18-Mar	88
11	19-Mar	119
12	20-Mar	169
13	21-Mar	247
14	22-Mar	351
15	23-Mar	442
16	24-Mar	564
17	25-Mar	704
18	26-Mar	867
19	27-Mar	1,137
20	28-Mar	1,406
21	29-Mar	1,653
22	30-Mar	1,933
23	31-Mar	2,199
24	1-Apr	2,547
25	2-Apr	2,902
26	3-Apr	3,312
27	4-Apr	3,739
28	5-Apr	4,043
29	6-Apr	4,450
30	7-Apr	4,782
31	8-Apr	5,148
32	9-Apr	5,512
33	10-Apr	5,878
34	11-Apr	6,250
35	12-Apr	6,604
36	13-Apr	6,975
37	14-Apr	7,280
38	15-Apr	7,791
39	16-Apr	8,414
40	17-Apr	9,107
41	18-Apr	10,222
42	19-Apr	11,602
43	20-Apr	12,919
44	21-Apr	13,725
45	22-Apr	14,117
46	23-Apr	14,694
47	24-Apr	15,169
48	25-Apr	15,587
49	26-Apr	15,963
50	27-Apr	16,325
51	28-Apr	16,769
52	29-Apr	17,303
53	30-Apr	18,027
54	1-May	18,743
55	2-May	19,335
56	3-May	19,914
57	4-May	20,474
58	5-May	20,969
59	6-May	21,576
60	7-May	22,131
61	8-May	23,016
62	9-May	23,697
63	10-May	24,081
64	11-May	24,777
65	12-May	25,250
66	13-May	25,721
67	14-May	26,357
68	15-May	26,954
69	16-May	27,474
70	17-May	27,923
71	18-May	28,454
72	19-May	28,952
73	20-May	29,436
74	21-May	30,167
75	22-May	30,794
76	23-May	31,408
77	24-May	31,911
78	25-May	32,477
79	26-May	33,006
80	27-May	33,439
81	28-May	33,915
82	29-May	34,566
83	30-May	35,034
84	31-May	35,472
85	1-Jun	35,984
86	2-Jun	36,350
87	3-Jun	36,792
88	4-Jun	37,282
89	5-Jun	37,758
90	6-Jun	38,111
91	7-Jun	38,476
92	8-Jun	38,837
93	9-Jun	39,162
94	10-Jun	39,575
95	11-Jun	40,004
96	12-Jun	40,424
97	13-Jun	40,848
98	14-Jun	41,148
99	15-Jun	41,576
100	16-Jun	42,010
101	17-Jun	42,422
102	18-Jun	43,122
103	19-Jun	43,731
104	20-Jun	44,262
105	21-Jun	44,808
106	22-Jun	45,537
107	23-Jun	46,127
108	24-Jun	46,759
109	25-Jun	47,651
110	26-Jun	48,638
111	27-Jun	49,455
112	28-Jun	50,309
113	29-Jun	51,046
114	30-Jun	51,789
115	1-Jul	52,865
116	2-Jul	54,166
117	3-Jul	55,257
118	4-Jul	56,183
119	5-Jul	57,150
120	6-Jul	57,956
121	7-Jul	58,904
122	8-Jul	60,181
123	9-Jul	61,331
124	10-Jul	62,856
125	11-Jul	64,214
126	12-Jul	65,592
127	13-Jul	66,853
128	14-Jul	67,995
129	15-Jul	69,311
130	16-Jul	70,601
131	17-Jul	72,280
132	18-Jul	73,822
133	19-Jul	74,932
134	20-Jul	76,168
135	21-Jul	77,215
136	22-Jul	78,742
137	23-Jul	80,186
138	24-Jul	81,746
139	25-Jul	83,184
140	26-Jul	84,073
141	27-Jul	85,177
142	28-Jul	86,497
143	29-Jul	87,893
144	30-Jul	89,626
145	31-Jul	91,159
146	Aug. 1	92,087
147	Aug. 2	93,031
148	Aug. 3	93,963
149	Aug. 4	95,106
150	Aug. 5	96,305
151	Aug. 6	97,471
152	Aug. 7	98,675
153	Aug. 8	99,969
154	Aug. 9	100,848
155	Aug. 10	101,731
156	Aug. 11	102,826
157	Aug. 12	104,248
158	Aug. 13	105,426
159	Aug. 14	106,557
160	Aug. 15	107,674
161	Aug. 16	108,287
162	Aug. 17	109,062
163	Aug. 18	109,923
164	Aug. 19	110,881
165	Aug. 20	112,003
166	Aug. 21	113,046
167	Aug. 22	114,165
168	Aug. 23	114,802
169	Aug. 24	115,651
170	Aug. 25	116,495
171	Aug. 26	117,584
172	Aug. 27	118,828
173	Aug. 28	120,124
174	Aug. 29	121,340
	Aug. 30

EARLY:

	Total cases reported to date
1	9-Mar	3
2	10-Mar	3
3	11-Mar	4
4	12-Mar	5
5	13-Mar	13
6	14-Mar	26
7	15-Mar	37
8	16-Mar	50
9	17-Mar	67
10	18-Mar	88
11	19-Mar	119
12	20-Mar	169
13	21-Mar	247
14	22-Mar	351
15	23-Mar	442
16	24-Mar	564
17	25-Mar	704
18	26-Mar	867
19	27-Mar	1,137
20	28-Mar	1,406
21	29-Mar	1,653
22	30-Mar	1,933
23	31-Mar	2,199
24	1-Apr	2,547
25	2-Apr	2,902
26	3-Apr	3,312
27	4-Apr	3,739
28	5-Apr	4,043
29	6-Apr	4,450
30	7-Apr	4,782
31	8-Apr	5,148
32	9-Apr	5,512
33	10-Apr	5,878
34	11-Apr	6,250
35	12-Apr	6,604
36	13-Apr	6,975
37	14-Apr	7,280
38	15-Apr	7,791
39	16-Apr	8,414
40	17-Apr	9,107
41	18-Apr	10,222
42	19-Apr	11,602
43	20-Apr	12,919
44	21-Apr	13,725
45	22-Apr	14,117
46	23-Apr	14,694
47	24-Apr	15,169
48	25-Apr	15,587
49	26-Apr	15,963
50	27-Apr	16,325
51	28-Apr	16,769
52	29-Apr	17,303
53	30-Apr	18,027
54	1-May	18,743
55	2-May	19,335
56	3-May	19,914
57	4-May	20,474
58	5-May	20,969
59	6-May	21,576
60	7-May	22,131
61	8-May	23,016
62	9-May	23,697
63	10-May	24,081
64	11-May	24,777
65	12-May	25,250
66	13-May	25,721
67	14-May	26,357
68	15-May	26,954
69	16-May	27,474
70	17-May	27,923
71	18-May	28,454
72	19-May	28,952
73	20-May	29,436
74	21-May	30,167
75	22-May	30,794
76	23-May	31,408
77	24-May	31,911
78	25-May	32,477
79	26-May	33,006
80	27-May	33,439