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You are ordering bobbleheads to be given away at a home baseball game in a few weeks. Your objective is to order enough bobbleheads to
You are ordering bobbleheads to be given away at a home baseball game in a few weeks. Your objective is to order enough bobbleheads to have a 95% probability of not running out. That is, you want to have a 95% probability of having a bobblehead for every fan who wants one. Attendance at the game is dependent on several factors, but the most important are weather and position in the race for the wildcard. The following table shows typical historical attendance figures based on the weather: Weather Conditions Probability of Weather Conditions Attendance Thunderstorms in forecast .08 5,000 - 8,000 Rainy, but no thunderstorms .22 10,000 - 16,000 Good weather .70 17,000 - 21,000 In addition, if we are still in the race for the wildcard when the game occurs, we can expect attendance to be 10% higher than normal. We estimate that there is a 30% chance we will still be in the wildcard race when the bobblehead promotion game occurs. Every fan who enters the stadium is offered a bobblehead. In past bobblehead promotions, 8% - 12% of the fans have declined the offer. In a spreadsheet, perform a Monte Carlo simulation with 10,000 trials to estimate the number of bobbleheads you should order to have a 95% probability of having enough bobbleheads to give one to every fan who wants one. (Hint: Simulate 10,000 trials, keeping track of how many bobbleheads are needed in each trial. Then, use the PERCENTILE.INC function to calculate the 95th percentile of the 10,000 trials)
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