You are testing a new allergy medication to see if it is effective for you. You estimate that the medication will be effective with probability 0.35, and not effective with probability 0.65. If it is effective, each day you have an independent probability of 0.3 of sneezing on that day. If it is not effective, each day you have an independent probability of 0.5 of sneezing on that day.

• a) Suppose that you don't sneeze on any of the firstkdays. What is the probability that the medication is effective?
• b) Is the event that you sneeze on day 1 independent from the event that you sneeze on day 2? Why or why not?