Question
You have written your first story book. You can auction it off to publishers, or you can self-publish it. If you auction it off, you
You have written your first story book. You can auction it off to publishers, or you can self-publish it. If you auction it off, you calculate there is a 30% chance it will sell for $18,000, and a 70% chance it will sell for $31,000. If you decide to self-publish, it will cost you $20,000, and you calculate there is a 60% chance you will earn gross revenues of $45,000, and a 40% chance you will earn gross revenues of $35,000. After seeing your self-published book revenues, you may spend $10,000 on marketing. If you pay for marketing, you calculate there is a 65% chance it will increase your gross revenues by $25,000 (for example, if your gross revenues were $10,000, they would go up to $35,000), and a 35% chance it will have no effect and will increase your gross revenues by $0. After evaluating your options, as an expected value decision maker, you make the optimal decision to self-publish your book and expect net earnings of $27,250. Genie Analytics approaches you with their patented ability to perfectly predict the future. What is the maximum you would be willing to pay Genie for their perfect information? That is, what is EVPI?
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