You run the public bus system for a large city. Currently, you transport 35,000 people over fixed routes using diesel-powered vehicles with a capacity to hold 100 people seated and 150 people standing. You operate 800 busses across 100 routes daily.

Here are some additional pieces of information about your organization and its environment:

• The cost of diesel fuel is climbing, but if a new carbon tax agreement goes into effect, diesel fuel will double in price. This will make diesel-powered busses prohibitively expensive to operate.
• Busses that run on natural gas are available, but these require different fueling and maintenance capabilities. You currently don't have these capabilities; acquiring them would require a $30 million investment over two years.
• Electric-powered busses are available but require overhead power wires to be installed along the bus route to provide the electricity.
• Battery-powered vehicles currently don't have sufficient range to be a viable choice. The overhead power wires will take five years to install system-wide and will cost about $32,000 per mile to install. Your system currently covers 1,500 miles of routes. You need three bus operators per bus, and they have an annual cost of $80,000 each.

There are three possible future scenarios for which you need to anticipate and prepare:

1. There is a 50% chance diesel fuel will become prohibitively expensive, but a 50% chance it will remain affordable.
2. There is a 60% chance hybrid electric buses become available that use natural gas + lithium ion batteries in 2-4 years at an unknown cost.
3. Ridership patterns force the system to move to an on-demand model where fixed routes and time schedules no longer make sense.

Select one of the above future scenarios and build an action plan for each possible outcome.

1. What resources will you need to put in place to manage the risks?
2. Under what circumstances would you make the $3 million investment in natural gas-powered vehicles?
3. Under what circumstances would you make the investment in overhead electric cable power?
4. How would you design your workforce to anticipate scenario 3, where ridership became on demand and you had to abandon fixed routes?