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Your company has developed a promising new product and it is examining alternatives to manufacture the product before introducing it into the market Currently you

Your company has developed a promising new product and it is examining alternatives to manufacture the product before introducing it into the market Currently you do not have the resources to manufacture the new product, as it requires a special machine. You have identified three alternative to manufacture the product. The first alternative is to purchase a used and older version of the machine at a cost of $250,000. The second alternative is to purchase the latest and state of the art machine at a price of $350,000. The third alternative is to outsource the manufacturing process to another company by sharing with them the design of your new product. You estimate that the variable cost of producing an item using the old machine will cost $15, and the cost of producing one iter using the new machine is $9 per item. Outsourcing your product will cost you $24per item. Demand for the new product is uncertain and the total market for your product is 100,000 items, where each iter sells for $30. Your marketing department predicts that your itern either will be a "flop", will have "potential", or is a "hi, if your new product is a flop, you get 5% of the market share. If your product has potential, then your market share is 20%. If it is a hit, then your market share is 40%. Your marketing specialists predict that your new product will be a flop, has potential, or a hit with equal probabilities. Draw a decision tree to reflect the three alternatives. Calculate the payoff associated with each, and point out the alternative that maximizes your expected profit. What is the probability alternative 3 is better than alternative 2?

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