Question
Your pharmaceutical distribution company, CertiCo, is bidding for a start-up drug company that has patents covering a new drug therapy for colitis. Your finance team
Your pharmaceutical distribution company, CertiCo, is bidding for a start-up drug company that has patents covering a new drug therapy for colitis. Your finance team has looked at the company, which has no revenue (the drug is still in FDA trials and is not yet approved for sale). They have estimated future sales, investment, profits, and cash flow. They then determined that the likelihood of realizing these cash flows was low (no certainty of FDA approval) and calculated a risk-adjusted Net Present Value of $40 million. That means that you could bid up to $40 million; any bid higher than that would destroy shareholder value, according to the CertiCo Discounted Cash Flow model. When you relay this conclusion to your investment banker, she is startled. Other bids are coming in over $110 million! Your bid is far too low. You have no chance of winning. You know that the other bidders have essentially similar operating models (potential synergies) and financial characteristics (discount rates, capital structures, etc.). In the end, you submit a bid for $40 million, and quickly learn that the start-up was sold for $170 million to one of your closest rivals, Flow Medical Pharmaceutical. You know that the management at Flow Medical is rational and analytical; and they have a reputation for being conscientious stewards of corporate resources. What possible explanation might there be for Low Countrys seemingly outrageous bid bid? (Note: Answer must be 150 words or fewer.)
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