9.71 2016 Irish Exit Poll The 2016 General Election Exit Poll was conducted exclusively by Ipsos MRBI, on behalf of The Irish Times. It took place among a national sample of 5260 voters across 200 polling stations throughout all constituencies in the Republic of Ireland. For two candidates, Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil, the parties’ vote shares were 26.1% and 22.9%, respectively.

a. Conduct all five steps of a test of H0: p = 0.25 against Ha: p • 0.25, where p denotes the probability that a randomly selected voter prefers Fianna Fáil. Would you be willing to predict the outcome of the election?

Explain how to make a decision, using a significance level of 0.05.

b. Suppose the sample size had been 500 voters, with the same sample proportions given above. What will be the new test statistic and P-value? Will you now be willing to predict the outcome of the election?

c. Using parts a and

b, explain how results of a significance test can depend on the sample size.