Inanexitpollof1648votersinthe2020SenatorialelectioninArizona,51.5%saidtheyvoted for MarkKellyand48.5%saidtheyvotedforMarthaMcSally. (a) Supposethatactually 50% ofthepopulationvotedforKelly.Ifthisexitpollhadthe propertiesofasimplerandomsample,findthestandarderrorofthesampleproportion votingforhim. (b) Underthe50%presumption,aretheresultsoftheexitpollsurprising?Why?Wouldyou bewillingtopredicttheelectionoutcome?Explainby(i)conductingasimulation;(ii) using thevaluefoundin(a)forthestandarderror.
Question:
Inanexitpollof1648votersinthe2020SenatorialelectioninArizona,51.5%saidtheyvoted for MarkKellyand48.5%saidtheyvotedforMarthaMcSally.
(a) Supposethatactually 50% ofthepopulationvotedforKelly.Ifthisexitpollhadthe propertiesofasimplerandomsample,findthestandarderrorofthesampleproportion votingforhim.
(b) Underthe50%presumption,aretheresultsoftheexitpollsurprising?Why?Wouldyou bewillingtopredicttheelectionoutcome?Explainby(i)conductingasimulation;(ii)
using thevaluefoundin(a)forthestandarderror.
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Foundations Of Statistics For Data Scientists With R And Python
ISBN: 9780367748456
1st Edition
Authors: Alan Agresti
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