to determinewhichstatehasgreaterevidencesupportinga Republican victory.Explainyourreasoning. (b) ConductaBayesiananalysistoanswerthequestionin(a)byfindingineachcasethe posterior P( < 0.50), correspondingtothe P-valuein(a).Usebeta(50,50)priors,which havestandarddeviation0.05andreflectthepollstersstrongpriorbeliefthat almost surely isbetween0.35and0.65.Explainanydifferencesbetweenconclusions.

to determinewhichstatehasgreaterevidencesupportinga Republican victory.Explainyourreasoning.

(b) ConductaBayesiananalysistoanswerthequestionin(a)byfindingineachcasethe posterior P(π < 0.50), correspondingtothe P-valuein(a).Usebeta(50,50)priors,which havestandarddeviation0.05andreflectthepollster’sstrongpriorbeliefthat π almost surely isbetween0.35and0.65.Explainanydifferencesbetweenconclusions.