A Finance Manager is considering drilling a well. In the past, only 70% of wells drilled were

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A Finance Manager is considering drilling a well. In the past, only 70% of wells drilled were successful at 20 metres depth in that area. Moreover, on finding no water at 20 metres, some persons in that area drilled it further up to 25 metres but only 20% struck water at that level. The prevailing cost of drilling is Rs 500 per metre. The Finance Manager estimated that in case he does not get water in his own well, he will have to pay Rs 15,000 to buy water from outside for the same period of getting water from the well. The following decisions are considered:

(i) Do not drill any well;

(ii) Drill up to 20 metres, and

(iii) If no water is found at 20 metres, drill further upto 25 metres.

Draw an appropriate decision tree and determine the Finance Manager's optimal strategy.

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