The investment staff of TNC Bank is considering four investment proposals for a client:

shares, bonds, real estate and savings certificate. These investments will be held for one year. The past data regarding the four proposals are given below:

Shares: There is 25 per cent chance that shares will decline by 10 per cent, a 30 per cent chance that they will remain stable and a 45 per cent chance that they will increase in value by 15 per cent. Also, the shares under consideration do not pay any dividends.

Bonds: These bonds stand a 40 per cent chance of increase in value by 5 per cent and 60 per cent chance of remaining stable and they yield 12 per cent.

Real Estate: This proposal has a 20 per cent chance of increasing 30 per cent in value, a 25 per cent chance of increasing in 20 per cent value, a 40 per cent chance of increasing in 10 per cent value, a 10 per cent chance of remaining stable and a 5 per cent chance of losing 5 per cent of its value.

Savings Certificates: These certificates yield 8.5 per cent with certainty.

Use a decision tree to structure the alternatives available to the investment staff, and using the expected value criterion, choose the alternative with the highest expected value.