The following data (stored in CoffeeExports ) represent the coffee exports (in thousands of 60 kg bags) by Costa Rica from 2006 to 2013:

Year .....................Exports (thousands of 60 kg bags)

2006 ........................................................1,310

2007 ........................................................1.364

2008 ........................................................1,440

2009 ........................................................1,236

2010 ........................................................1,200

2011 ........................................................1,243

2012 ........................................................1,374

2013 ........................................................1,344

a. Plot the data.

b. Fit a three-year moving average to the data and plot the results.

c. Using a smoothing coefficient of W = 0.50, exponentially smooth the series and plot the results.

d. What is your exponentially smoothed forecast for 2014?

e. Repeat (c) and (d), using a smoothing coefficient of W = 0.25.

f. Compare the results of (d) and (e).

g. What conclusions can you reach about the exports of coffee in Costa Rica?