The number of cases of merlot wine sold by the Connor Owen winery in an eight- year period is as follows:
Year ............. Demand
2005 ............. 270
2006 ............. 356
2007 ............. 398
2008 ............. 456
2009 ............. 358
2010 ............. 500
2011.............410
2012.............376
Using an exponential smoothing model with an alpha value of 0.20, estimate the smoothed value calculated as of the end of 2012. Use the average demand for 2005 through 2007 as your initial forecast, and then smooth the forecast forward to 2012.