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business
principles of risk management

Questions and Answers of Principles Of Risk Management

▪ What is the typical specifi cation of inputs to probabilistic models?
▪ What factors infl uence the duration of probabilistic analysis?
▪ What is the high‐level workfl ow in probabilistic analysis?
▪ What is the method statement in probabilistic analysis?
▪ What are the main goals of probabilistic analyses?
▪ Why should integrated cost and schedule risk analyses come to maturity as soon as possible?
▪ Is it really challenging to quantify unknowns?
▪ What should project teams and decision makers know about probabilistic branching and merge bias?
▪ What is included in project reserves?
▪ Why should correlations never be ignored?
▪ What should be done to avoid double dipping?
▪ What are the origins and roles of general uncertainties and uncertain events in Monte Carlo models?
▪ Why should deterministic and probabilistic methods be seamless?
▪ How do 5,000 deterministic scenarios give rise to one probabilistic distribution?
▪ What is the value and power of the Monte Carlo methodology?
▪ Should cost escalation modeling be probabilistic?
▪ How reliable can cost escalation modeling be?
▪ Why should fi rst and second market transactions be delineated?
▪ Why is consumer price index the worst possible macroeconomic index for evaluating project cost escalation?
▪ How average should an average really be?
▪ Are there severe or unusual safety hazards and how should they be managed?
▪ If applicable, how should technical novelty be handled?
▪ What type of contract should be proposed and why?
▪ What interfaces should be managed due to selected size, scope, and schedule?
▪ What should be the optimal size, scope, and schedule of the package?
▪ How might a standard risk management methodology make procurement people’s lives easier?
▪ Why is risk‐based selection of procurement options better than risk management of a given procurement option?
▪ By what process do we manage risks in procurement?
▪ What are three major groups of work‐package risks?
▪ Where do the uncertainties of procurement come from?
▪ How can we distinguish the contracts we should not touch from the ones we must win?
▪ What is a controlled option selection decision tree and how might it help when there are numerous options?
▪ What kind of template can be used for engineering design option selection?
▪ How may a standard risk management methodology help engineers?
▪ Why is risk‐based selection of options better than and preferable to risk management of a given option?
▪ What is the level of integration of risk management with the other project disciplines, with package and business‐unit risk management, and with risk systems of customers, partners,
▪ What responsibilities do team members have in risk management (risk, action, risk category, and so on, ownership)?
▪ How are the risks managed (the process and status of risks and action in various steps of the process)?
▪ What types of uncertainties does it manage (“objects” of Table 1.2)?
▪ What are the main sources of uncertainties (risk breakdown structure)?
▪ What are the project’s stated objectives used in risk management?
▪ What does the project do in general (its scope, components, packages, etc.)?
▪ Why should we use commercial probabilistic Monte Carlo tools?
▪ What is a detail specifi cation for a do‐it‐yourself risk register?
▪ Why is MS Excel still the best risk management software package?
▪ Why should the tail stop wagging the dog?
▪ How could automation make making errors more effi cient?
▪ What commercial software packages are available for risk database management?
▪ Why should the structure of a project uncertainty repository be based on three dimensions of risk management?
▪ What is the role of bias?
▪ Is a risk manager really a manager or a leader?
▪ What sort of risk management system health self‐check should be in place?
▪ What forms should risk reporting take?
▪ What is the terminology for various types of risks?
▪ What is the role of ownership in risk management?
▪ How unique should a project be allowed to be?
▪ What risk management keys are required for decision gates?
▪ What is the role of bias?
▪ When should uncertainties be closed or accepted?
▪ Do we keep our promise to successfully implement all approved addressing actions?
▪ Why is assessment after addressing (to‐be) more important than assessment as‐is?
▪ Why should addressing actions become part of project team work plans?
▪ Where does the rubber meet the road in risk management?
▪ “What types of bias might we come across when assessing this uncertainty and why?”
▪ “What are the chances that real impact will be outside of the discussed range?”
▪ “What is your confidence level that impact will belong to this range and why?”
▪ “What happens to that other project and is it relevant to ours?”
▪ “What makes you believe that?”
▪ “What is the worst/most expectable/least damaging scenario?”
▪ “What are the chances/odds/likelihood that this event happens or we discover its existence?”
▪ “Can we model this event?”
▪ “What potential steps, if any, should be undertaken to better understand this event and reduce its randomness?”
▪ “What are elements of novelty in this project?”
▪ “Do we have any knowledge of or historic data on this event?”
▪ “Are project stakeholders behind this event and do they define probability of its occurrence?”
▪ “Do we assess probability of happening or probability of discovery of a particular predetermined outcome?”
▪ “Is the uncertain event truly random?”
▪ What is the role of bias?
▪ What does PETRA mean and how should it be used for addressing?
▪ What does a do‐it‐yourself risk register look like?
▪ What are the roles of monsters, pets, diamonds‐in‐the‐rough, and fi ne diamonds in risk management?
▪ What is an addressed uncertainty ?
▪ What are fi ve fundamental uncertainty addressing strategies?
▪ Why did Italian geophysicists go to prison?
▪ Do we ask the right questions?
▪ Do we assess probability of a random event or possibility to discover a premeditated broiler black swan plot?
▪ What is the anatomy of a good RAM?
▪ What kind of measuring tool is required to assess uncertainties?
▪ What is the role of bias?
▪ What is a technology readiness level?
▪ What defi nes room for unknown unknowns?
▪ Why should all risk management people get a bowtie?
▪ How may we identify the broiler black swans?
▪ What is the difference between causes and sources of uncertainties?
▪ How should uncertainty identifi cation workshops be organized to be effective instead of boring?
▪ How should the three dimensions of risk management be used to structure uncertainty identifi cation?
▪ Why is icon painting somehow relevant to risk management?
▪ How may we recognize ersatz or pseudo risk management methods?
▪ What is a minimal set of adequate methods that covers all types of project uncertainty objects?
▪ What distances to reality do various risk methods have?

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