A company receives large shipments of parts from two sources. Seventy percent of the shipments come from a supplier whose shipments typically contain 10%

defectives, while the remainder are from a supplier whose shipments typically contain 20% defectives. A manager receives a shipment but does not know the source. A random sample of 20 items from this shipment is tested, and 1 of the parts is found to be defective.

What is the probability that this shipment came from the more reliable supplier? (Hint: Use Bayes’

theorem.)