Deloitte is a firm that conducts an annual survey that gauges consumer spending expectations during the year-end holiday season. The following data show the percentage of respondents who indicated that they would spend less this year on holiday gifts when compared to the previous year. These data can also be found in the Excel file Deloitte.xlsx.

Year Percentage Year Percentage 2005 32 2009 51 2006 29 2010 38 2007 41 2011 42 2008 59 2012 37 Based on: Deloitte Annual Holiday Survey.

a. Using a three-period simple moving average, forecast the percentage of holiday shoppers who intend to spend less in 2013.

b. Calculate the MAD for the forecast in part a.

c. Using a three-period weighted moving average with the weights 5, 3, and 1, forecast the percentage of holiday shoppers who intend to spend less in 2013.

d. Calculate the MAD for the forecast in part c.

e. Which forecast do you have most confidence in?

AppendixLO1