Question: 1. Decision Theory. In this book, we usually use the posterior mean as a point estimate. However, in a formal decision theoretic context, the choice
1. Decision Theory. In this book, we usually use the posterior mean as a point estimate. However, in a formal decision theoretic context, the choice of a point estimate of is made by defining a loss function and choosing the point estimate which minimizes expected loss. Thus, if C.e; / is the loss (or cost)
associated with choosinge as a point estimate of , then we would choosee
which minimizes E[C.e; /jy] (where the expectation is taken with respect to the posterior of ). For the case where is a scalar, show the following:
(a) Squared error loss function. If C.e; / D .e /2 thene D E.jy/.
(b) Asymmetric linear loss function. If C.e; / D
(
c1je j ife
c2je j if e >
where c1 > 0 and c2 > 0 are constants, thene is the c1 c1Cc2 th quantile of p.jy/.
(c) All-or-nothing loss function. If C.e; / D
(
c ife 6D
0 ife D
where c > 0 is a constant, thene is the mode of p.jy/.
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