In the article “Weighing Anchors” in Omni magazine, author John Rubin observed that when people estimate a value, their estimate is often “anchored” to (or influenced by) a preceding number, even if that preceding number is totally unrelated to the quantity being estimated. To demonstrate this, he asked people to give a quick estimate of the value of 8 x 7 x 6 x 5 x 4 x 3 x 2 x 1. The mean of the answers given was 2250, but when the order of the numbers was reversed, the mean became 512. Rubin explained that when we begin calculations with larger numbers (as in 8 x 7 x 6), our estimates tend to be larger. He noted that both 2250 and 512 are far below the correct product, 40,320. The article suggests that irrelevant numbers can play a role in influencing real estate appraisals, estimates of car values, and estimates of the likelihood of nuclear war. Conduct an experiment to test this theory.

Record the estimates along with the particular order used. Carefully design the experiment so that conditions are uniform and the two sample groups are selected in a way that minimizes any bias. Don’t describe the theory to subjects until after they have provided their estimates. Compare the two sets of sample results by using the methods of this chapter. Provide a printed report that includes the data collected, the detailed methods used, the method of analysis, any relevant graphs and/or statistics, and a statement of conclusions. Include a critique of the experiment, with reasons why the results might not be correct, and describe ways in which the9 experiment could be improved.