You are given that a particular policyholders 14-year discount history is 1, 2, 1, 2, 3, 2,

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You are given that a particular policyholder’s 14-year discount history is 1, 2, 1, 2, 3, 2, 3, 3, 2, 1, 1, 1, 2, 3 where the number refers to a particular discount state, as defined above. Determine the probability that the policyholder will be in the following states at t = 15.

a. State 1

b. State 2

c. State 3 

Is the process Markov?

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