Take Pearls earthquake example. Suppose there is an intervention on JohnCalls. 1. Use ordinary observation and updating.

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Take Pearl’s earthquake example. Suppose there is an intervention on JohnCalls.

1. Use ordinary observation and updating. What is Bel(Burglary)?

2. Use Pearl’s cut-link method. What is Bel(Burglary)? this case?

3. Use the augmented model with 0.9 effectiveness. What is Bel(Burglary)?

Now add an independent observation for MaryCalls=T. Parts 4, 5 and 6 of this problem involve repeating the parts 1, 2 and 3 for this new situation.

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Bayesian Artificial Intelligence

ISBN: 9781439815915

2nd Edition

Authors: Kevin B. Korb, Ann E. Nicholson

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