Using these key drivers as the core elements, construct three future scenarios for the organization: the most likely, an optimistic scenario, and a pessimistic one. The “most likely” scenario is constructed on the basis of the “best guess” as to what will happen to each of the five key drivers over the specified time frame. Note that “best guess”

does not imply a casual approach; best guess can be based on sophisticated market intelligence and forecasting. The “optimistic” and “pessimistic” scenarios focus attention on how the organization might respond to each of those outcomes. The construction of the scenarios requires skill, and it is not uncommon for organizations to employ external consultants who are experienced in scenario development. Scenarios need to be compelling and plausible narratives, even if they are unlikely to happen.

This is necessary if they are to form the basis of discussion concerning the organization’s response to those three possible futures.