2 In a certain country, the probability that a fighter plane returns from a mission without mishap is 49/50, independent of other missions. In a conversation, Mia concluded that any pilot who flew 49 consecutive mis- sions without mishap should be returned home before the fiftieth mission. But, on considering the matter, Jim concluded that the probability of a randomly selected pilot being able to fly 49 consecutive missions safely is (49/50)490.3716017. In other words, the odds are almost two to one against an ordinary pilot performing the feat which this pilot has already performed. Hence the pilot would seem to be more skillful than most and thus has a better chance of surviving the 50th mission. Who is right, Mia, Jim, or neither of them? Explain.