$1.$ By using the actual demand of the first $16$ periods, forecast the demand for period $17,$ by

$3-$period moving average and

exponential smoothing techniques $().$

$2.$ Find the best $$ value for exponential smoothing techniques.

$4.$ Finally, see which forecast is more accurate by using Mean absolute deviation $($MAD$)$ and Mean Squared Error $($MSE$).$