14.18. The director of a large public library has to schedule the activities of the Employees in charge of putting books and periodicals back in the estates Returned by library users.' The number of bibliographic elements that appear in Loan quality will determine the labor requirements. The following data reflect the Number of such items that have left the library in the last three years.

The director needs a time series method to forecast the number of elements That will leave the institution next month. Find the best possible forecast with The simple moving average method. Define what is meant by "the best" and justify your Decision.

Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 1.986 Month January February March April may June July August September October November December 1.847 2.669 2.467 2.432 2.464 2.378 2.217 2.445 1.849 1.922 2.431 2.274 2.045 2.321 2.419 2.088 2.667 2.122 2.206 1.869 2.441 2.291 2.364 2.189 2.564 2.635 2.150 2.201 2.663 2.055 1.678 1.845 2.065 2.147 2.451 O