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A binary option pays off $100 if a stock price is greater than $30 in three months. The current stock price is $25 and its

A binary option pays off $100 if a stock price is greater than $30 in three months.

The current stock price is $25 and its volatility is 30%. The risk-free rate is 3% and the expected return on the stock is 10%. What is the value of the option? What is the real-world probability that the payoff will be received?

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