Question
A promising college basketball talent has to decide whether or not to enter this year's NBA draft. If he enters, he expects that there is
A promising college basketball talent has to decide whether or not to enter this year's NBA draft. If he enters, he expects that there is a 40% chance that he is a first round pick and a 60% chance that he is picked in a later round. As a first round pick, he would secure a 10 million dollar contract, if he is picked in a later round, his contract would only be worth $1 000 000.
If he does not enter the draft this year and continues to play in college, his chance of being a first round pick next year will increase to 60% (the contracts for first and later round picks are the same as in the previous year, $10 million and $1 000 000 respectively). However, there is a chance that he suffers a career ending injury next season, in which case he could make $50 000 as a coach in Europe.
Calculate the injury probability p(rounded to 2 decimals) that makes the decision maker indifferent between entering now and waiting until next year, that is for what probability are the EMV of both alternatives equal?
a.0.50
b.0.20
c.0.28
d.0.24
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