Question
An independent electronics store is contemplating either opening another store or expanding its existing location. The payoff table for these two decisions is: s1 s2
An independent electronics store is contemplating either opening another store or expanding its existing location. The payoff table for these two decisions is:
s1 | s2 | s3 | |
New Store | -$60,000 | $15,000 | $180,000 |
Expand | -$30,000 | $15,000 | $90,000 |
Peter, the owner of the store, has calculated the indifference probability for the lottery having a payoff of $180,000 with probabilityp and -$60,000 with probability (1-p) with the following sure amounts as follows:
Amount | Indifference Probability (p) |
-$30,000 | 0.4 |
$15,000 | 0.7 |
$90,000 | 0.9 |
- Suppose Peter has defined the utility of -$60,000 to be 0 and the utility of $180,000 to be 100. What would be the utility values for -$30,000, $15,000, and $90,000 based on the indifference probabilities?
2. SupposeP(s1) = .4,P(s2) = .3, andP(s3) = .3. Which decision should Peter make? Compare with the decision using the expected value approach. Is Peter a risk taker or is he risk averse?
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