Question
As a Greek citizen, you observe that the one-year nominal interest rates in Euro area and two other European currencies for 2019 are those reported
As a Greek citizen, you observe that the one-year nominal interest rates in Euro area and two other European currencies for 2019 are those reported in the following table:
One-year interest rates (%) | |
Euro () | -0.27 |
UK pound sterling () | 1.01 |
Swiss franc (CHF) | -0.56 |
a) Using only official international data sources regarding exchange rates (such as Eurostat, IMF) and assuming that the no-arbitrage condition holds, calculate the one-year euro forward exchange rate for 2019.
b) Assume now that the one-year euro forward exchange rates determined by the forces of supply and demand are depicted in table 2. Where is the best place to borrow or lend money? Calculate for each individual country the net profits of a 3.5 million arbitrage transaction. Should you invest in the UK or in Switzerland? (Consider you have no money and you need to get a loan of 3.5 million euros from a Eurozone bank or raising money through a loan equivalent 3.5 million euros by a UK or Swiss bank - at the respective interest rate reported in table.)
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