Question
Consider the following demand data for a certain product over four quarters in 2019 and four quarter in 2020. ( The data can be directly
Consider the following demand data for a certain product over four quarters in 2019 and four quarter in 2020. (The data can be directly copied into Excel.)
Period | Quarter | Demand |
1 | 2019 Q1 | 830 |
2 | 2019 Q2 | 1050 |
3 | 2019 Q3 | 930 |
4 | 2019 Q4 | 770 |
5 | 2020 Q1 | 740 |
6 | 2020 Q2 | 930 |
7 | 2020 Q3 | 810 |
8 | 2020 Q4 | 680 |
We have noticed a seasonal pattern in the data and thus decided to use a cycle decomposition technique with multiplicative seasonality to forecast the trend into 2021, i.e., periods 9 through 12.
a) The seasonal factor for Q3 is [ Select ] ["1.09", "1.03", "0.96", "0.92"] .
b) The deseasonalized demand in Q2 of 2020 (Period 6) is [ Select ] ["791", "974", "1392", "888"] .
c) Based on the linear regression of the deseasonalized data, the deseasonalized forecast for Q4 of 2021 is [ Select ] ["777", "1030", "844", "693"] .
d) The correlation coefficient of [ Select ] ["-0.81", "-0.87", "0.87", "0.81"] for the regression shows a(n) [ Select ] ["decreasing", "increasing"] demand trend and a relatively [ Select ] ["strong", "weak"] fit (predictive power).
e) The forecast including trend and seasonality (FITS) for Q1 of 2021 is [ Select ] ["1016", "1152", "701", "921"] .
f) The four-period moving-average forecast for Q1 of 2021 equals [ Select ] ["945", "790", "995", "886"] and [ Select ] ["overestimates", "underestimates"] the FITS for the same period.
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