Daily sales volume for Nilgiris Convenience Store is provided in the tab Niligiris Convenience.

a$.$ Starting Day $11,$ the store wants to use exponential smoothing to forecast the next day$$s

sales volume. But what value of $\backslash$alpha should it use? It is considering three values: $0\mathrm{.}2,0\mathrm{.}5,$

and $0\mathrm{.}9.$ Select the appropriate value of $\backslash$alpha by calculating forecasts for days $2$ through $10$

with each of these values and calculating the Mean Absolute Percent Error $($MAPE$).$

Assume in each case that the forecast for Day $1$ was $$300.(15$ pts$)$

b$.$ The store sees an increasing trend in the data and decides to use a linear trend for

forecasting. What is the trend equation for this data? $(5$ pts$)$

c$.$ Using the trend equation calculate forecasts for days $2$ through $10.$ Calculate the MAPE

of this set of forecasts. $(8$ pts$)$

d$.$ Compare the MAPE of the best $\backslash$alpha in $($a$)$ with the MAPE in $($c$).$ Which method would you

prefer? $(2$ pts$)$

table: Day Sales

$1$ $$277$

$2$ $$661$

$3$ $$556$

$4$ $$678$

$5$ $$585$

$6$ $$619$

$7$ $$829$

$8$ $$780$

$9$ $$951$

$10$ $$847$