good afternoon how are you. i need help with question 4 with explaining what happend and why it happened and the similarities and stuff and which is better. i did everything and did all the data just need someone to help with explaining what happened with the formulas used as well. thank you.

This project explores time series in projecting forecast of some hypothetical data to support decision makers. Data is based on monthly basis for a period of 4 years and is available in excel worksheet assigned to you. You are required to carry out the following tasks in the same excel worksheet, that is assigned to you. 1. Make two copies of the data in two different worksheets in the same file. Each will be used as described in step 2 and 3 below. 2. Simple Moving Average Task a. Use Simple Moving Average techniques to forecast the consumer Price Index. Use 3 month (n=3) and 5 month (n=5) moving average for your forecast. All subsequent steps are also for both n=3 and n=5 periods. b. Compute forecasting Error C. Compute MAD, MSE, MAPE d. Plot the actual against forecasted value (plot forecast of both n=3 and n=5) 3. Exponential Smoothing Forecast Task a. Use Single Exponential Smoothing techniques to forecast the consumer Price Index assuming alpha = 0.1 and alpha=0.5. All subsequent steps are also for both alpha = 0.1 and alpha=0.5 b. Compute forecasting Error c. Compute MAD, MSE, MAPE d. Plot the actual against forecasted value (plot forecast of both alpha = 0.1 and alpha = 0.5) 4. Explain and comment on the results, including accuracy and trends. File Home Insert Draw Page Layout Formulas Data Review View Help 042 fr 00 B D E F G H 1 L 1 Forcasted Absoulte error Month Forcasting error Absoulte percent error Actual Error squares 2 n = 3 n=5 n = 3 n=5 n = 3 n=5 n=3 n=5 n=3 n=5 3 2017-01-01 50.00 0.00 0.00 50.00 50.00 50.00 50.00 100.00 100.00 2500.00 2500.00 4 2017-02-01 81.00 0.00 0.00 81.00 81.00 81.00 81.00 100.00 100.00 6561.00 6561.00 5 2017-03-01 77.00 0.00 0.00 77.00 77.00 77.00 77.00 100.00 100.00 5929.00 5929.00 6 2017-04-01 49.00 69.33 0.00 -20.33 49.00 20.33 49.00 41.50 100.00 413.44 2401.00 7 2017-05-01 67.00 69.00 0.00 -2.00 67.00 2.00 67.00 2.99 100.00 4.00 4489.00 8 2017-06-01 68.00 64.33 64.80 3.67 3.20 3.67 3.20 5.39 4.71 13.44 10.24 9 2017-07-01 78.00 61.33 68.40 16.67 9.60 16.67 9.60 21.37 12.31 277.78 92.16 10 2017-08-01 97.00 71.00 67.80 26.00 29.20 26.00 29.20 26.80 30.10 676.00 852.64 11 2017-09-01 38.00 81.00 71.80 -43.00 -33.80 43.00 33.80 113.16 88.95 1849.00 1142.44 12 2017-10-01 95.00 71.00 69.60 24.00 25.40 24.00 25.40 25.26 26.74 576.00 645.16 13 2017-11-01 85.00 76.67 75.20 8.33 9.80 8.33 9.80 9.80 11.53 69.44 96.04 14 2017-12-01 52.00 72.67 78.60 -20.67 -26.60 20.67 26.60 39.74 51.15 427.11 707.56 15 2018-01-01 89.00 77.33 73.40 11.67 15.60 11.67 15.60 13.11 17.53 136.11 243.36 16 2018-02-01 41.00 75.33 71.80 -34.33 -30.80 34.33 30.80 83.74 75.12 1178.78 948.64 17 2018-03-01 79.00 60.67 72.40 18.33 6.60 18.33 6.60 23.21 8.35 336.11 43.56 18 2018-04-01 69.00 69.67 69.20 -0.67 -0.20 0.67 0.20 0.97 0.29 0.44 0.04 19 2018-05-01 99.00 63.00 66.00 36.00 33.00 36.00 33.00 36.36 33.33 1296.00 1089.00 20 2018-06-01 84.00 82.33 75.40 1.67 8.60 1.67 8.60 1.98 10.24 2.78 73.96 21 2018-07-01 47.00 84.00 74.40 -37.00 -27.40 37.00 27.40 78.72 58.30 1369.00 750.76 22 2018-08-01 19.00 76.67 75.60 -57.67 -56.60 57.67 56.60 303.51 297.89 3325.44 3203.56 23 2018-09-01 35.00 50.00 63.60 -15.00 -28.60 15.00 28.60 42.86 81.71 225.00 817.96 24 2018-10-01 49.00 33.67 56.80 15.33 -7.80 15.33 7.80 31.29 15.92 235.11 60.84 25 2018-11-01 23.00 34.33 46.80 -11.33 -23.80 11.33 23.80 49.28 103.48 128.44 566.44 26 2018-12-01 48.00 35.67 34.60 12.33 13.40 12.33 13.40 25.69 27.92 152.11 179.56 27 2019-01-01 68.00 40.00 34.80 28.00 33.20 28.00 33.20 41.18 48.82 784.00 1102.24 28 2019-02-01 64.00 46.33 44.60 17.67 19.40 17.67 19.40 27.60 30.31 312.11 376.36 29 2019-03-01 34.00 60.00 50.40 -26.00 -16.40 26.00 16.40 76.47 48.24 676.00 268.96 30 2019-04-01 89.00 55.33 47.40 33.67 41.60 33.67 41.60 37.83 46.74 1133.44 1730.56 31 2019-05-01 16.00 62.33 60.60 -46.33 -44.60 46.33 44.60 289.58 278.75 2146.78 1989.16 32 2019-06-01 86.00 46.33 54.20 39.67 31.80 39.67 31.80 46.12 36.98 1573.44 1011.24 33 2019-07-01 32.00 63.67 57.80 -31.67 -25.80 31.67 25.80 98.96 80.63 1002.78 665.64 34 2019-08-01 99.00 44.67 51.40 54.33 47.60 54.33 47.60 54.88 48.08 2952.11 2265.76 35 2019-09-01 63.00 72.33 64.40 -9.33 -1.40 9.33 1.40 14.81 2.22 87.11 1.96 36 2019-10-01 56.00 64.67 59.20 -8.67 -3.20 8.67 3.20 15.48 5.71 75.11 10.24 37 2019-11-01 36.00 72.67 67.20 -36.67 -31.20 36.67 31.20 101.85 86.67 1344.44 973.44 38 2019-12-01 30.00 51.67 57.20 -21.67 -27.20 21.67 27.20 72.22 90.67 469.44 739.84 39 2020-01-01 84.00 40.67 56.80 43.33 27.20 43.33 27.20 51.59 32.38 1877.78 739.84 40 2020-02-01 52.00 50.00 53.80 2.00 -1.80 2.00 1.80 3.85 3.46 4.00 3.24 41 2020-03-01 60.00 55.33 51.60 4.67 8.40 4.67 8.40 7.78 14.00 21.78 70.56 422020-04-01 54.00 65.33 52.40 -11.33 1.60 11.33 1.60 20.99 2.96 128.44 2.56 43 2020-05-01 59.00 55.33 56.00 3.67 3.00 3.67 3.00 6.21 5.08 13.44 9.00 65.33 2.56 2020-04-01 54.00 2020-05-01 59.00 2020-06-01 61.00 2020-07-01] 60.00 2020-08-01 58.00 2020-09-01 55.00 2020-10-01 29.00 2020-11-01 42.00 2020-12-01 72.00 55.33 57.67 58.00 60.00 59.67 57.67 47.33 42.00 52.40 56.00 61.80 57.20 58.80 58.40 58.60 52.60 48.80 -11.33 3.67 3.33 2.00 -2.00 -4.67 -28.67 -5.33 30.00 1.60 3.00 -0.80 2.80 -0.80 -3.40 -29.60 - 10.60 23.20 11.33 3.67 3.33 2.00 2.00 4.67 28.67 5.33 30.00 20.24 MAD 1.60 3.00 0.80 2.80 0.80 3.40 29.60 10.60 23.20 19.22 20.99 6.21 5.46 3.33 3.45 8.48 98.85 12.70 41.67 47.07" MAPE 2.96 5.08 1.31 4.67 1.38 6.18 102.07 25.24 32.22 46.29 128.44 13.44 9.00 11.11 0.64 4.00 7.84 4.00 0.64 21.78 11.56 821.78 876.16 28.44 112.36 900.00 538.24 646.33 582.14 MSE B Month Actual ( - 4.44 1 2 3 2017-01-01 4 2017-02-01 5 2017-03-01 6 2017-04-01 7 2017-05-01 8 2017-06-01 9 2017-07-01 10 2017-08-01 11 2017-09-01 12 2017-10-01 13 2017-11-01 14 2017-12-01 15 2018-01-01 16 2018-02-01 17 2018-03-01 18 2018-04-01 19 2018-05-01 20 2018-06-01 21 2018-07-01 22 2018-08-01 23 2018-09-01 24 2018-10-01 25 2018-11-01 26 2018-12-01 27 2019-01-01 28 2019-02-01 29 2019-03-01 30 2019-04-01 31 2019-05-01 32 2019-06-01 33 2019-07-01 34 2019-08-01 35 2019-09-01 36 | 2019-10-01 37 2019-11-01 38 2019-12-01 39 2020-01-01 40 2020-02-01 41 2020-03-01 42 2020-04-01 43 2020-05-01 50.00 81.00 77.00 49.00 67.00 68.00 78.00 97.00 38.00 95.00 85.00 52.00 89.00 41.00 79.00 69.00 99.00 84.00 47.00 19.00 35.00 49.00 23.00 48.00 68.00 64.00 34.00 89.00 16.00 86.00 32.00 99.00 63.00 56.00 36.00 30.00 84.00 52.00 60.00 54.00 59.00 D Forcasted a = 0.1 a=0.5 50.00 50.00 50.00 50.00 53.10 65.50 55.49 71.25 54.84 60.13 56.06 63.56 57.25 65.78 59.33 71.89 63.09 84.45 60.58 61.22 64.03 78.11 66.12 81.56 64.71 66.78 67.14 77.89 64.53 59.44 65.97 69.22 66.28 69.11 69.55 84.06 70.99 84.03 68.59 65.51 63.63 42.26 60.77 38.63 59.59 43.81 55.93 33.41 55.14 40.70 56.43 54.35 57.18 59.18 54.87 46.59 58.28 67.79 54.05 41.90 57.25 63.95 54.72 47.97 59.15 73.49 59.53 68.24 59.18 62.12 56.86 49.06 54.18 39.53 57.16 61.77 56.64 56.88 56.98 58.44 56.68 56.22 E F G H K L Forcasting error Absolute error Absolute percent error Error sqaures a = 0.1 a=0.5 a = 0.1 a=0.5 a=0.1 a=0.5 a=0.1 a=0.5 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 31.00 31.00 31.00 31.00 38.27 38.27 961.00 961.00 23.90 11.50 23.90 11.50 31.04 14.94 571.21 132.25 -6.49 -22.25 6.49 22.25 13.24 45.41 42.12 495.06 12.16 6.88 12.16 6.88 18.15 10.26 147.84 47.27 11.94 11.94 4.44 17.56 6.53 142.64 19.69 20.75 12.22 20.75 12.22 26.60 15.67 430.51 149.30 37.67 25.11 37.67 25.11 38.84 25.89 1419.32 630.48 -25.09 -46.45 25.09 46.45 66.04 122.22 629.68 2157.17 34.42 33.78 34.42 33.78 36.23 35.56 1184.45 1140.91 20.97 6.89 20.97 6.89 24.68 8.10 439.92 47.45 -14.12 -29.56 14.12 29.56 27.16 56.84 199.46 873.54 24.29 22.22 24.29 22.22 27.29 24.97 589.96 493.82 -26.14 -36.89 26.14 36.89 63.76 89.97 683.29 1360.79 14.47 19.56 14.47 19.56 18.32 24.75 209.50 382.42 3.03 -0.22 3.03 0.22 4.39 0.32 9.16 0.05 32.72 29.89 32.72 29.89 33.05 30.19 1070.87 893.35 14.45 -0.06 14.45 0.06 17.20 0.07 208.85 0.00 -23.99 -37.03 23.99 37.03 51.05 78.78 575.69 1371.06 -49.59 -46.51 49.59 46.51 261.02 244.81 2459.58 2163.54 -28.63 -7.26 28.63 7.26 81.81 20.73 819.95 52.66 -11.77 10.37 11.77 10.37 24.02 21.17 138.56 107.57 -36.59 -20.81 36.59 20.81 159.10 90.50 1339.13 433.23 -7.93 14.59 7.93 14.59 16.53 30.40 62.96 212.95 12.86 27.30 12.86 27.30 18.91 40.14 165.35 745.10 7.57 9.65 7.57 9.65 11.83 15.08 57.35 93.09 -23.18 -25.18 23.18 25.18 68.19 74.05 537.52 633.83 34.13 42.41 34.13 42.41 38.35 47.65 1165.13 1798.78 -42.28 -51.79 42.28 51.79 264.25 323.71 1787.54 2682.62 31.95 44.10 31.95 44.10 37.15 51.28 1020.71 1945.08 -25.25 -31.95 25.25 31.95 78.89 99.84 637.37 1020.71 44.28 51.03 44.28 51.03 44.73 51.54 1960.57 2603.63 3.85 -10.49 3.85 10.49 6.11 16.65 14.83 109.98 -3.53 - 12.24 3.53 12.24 6.31 21.86 12.49 149.90 -23.18 -26.12 23.18 26.12 64.39 72.56 537.36 682.35 -26.86 - 19.06 26.86 19.06 89.54 63.54 721.62 363.32 29.82 44.47 29.82 44.47 35.50 52.94 889.43 1977.54 -5.16 -9.77 5.16 9.77 9.92 18.78 26.62 95.36 3.36 3.12 3.36 3.12 5.59 5.20 11.27 9.72 -2.98 -4.44 2.98 4.44 5.52 8.22 8.87 19.73 2.32 2.78 2.32 2.78 3.93 4.71 5.38 7.72 5.38 16.70 7.17 0.17 43 2020-05-01 44 2020-06-01 45 2020-07-01 46 2020-08-01 47 2020-09-01 48 2020-10-01 49 2020-11-01 50 2020-12-01 51 52 59.00 61.00 60.00 58.00 55.00 29.00 42.00 72.00 56.68 56.91 57.32 57.59 57.63 57.37 54.53 53.28 56.22 57.61 59.31 59.65 58.83 56.91 42.96 42.48 2.32 4.09 2.68 0.41 -2.63 -28.37 -12.53 18.72 2.78 3.39 0.69 -1.65 -3.83 -27.91 -0.96 29.52 2.32 4.09 2.68 0.41 2.63 28.37 12.53 18.72 18.84 MAD 2.78 3.39 0.69 1.65 3.83 27.91 0.96 29.52 19.99 6.92 3.93 6.70 4.46 0.71 4.78 97.82 29.83 26.00 42.81 MAPE 4.71 5.56 1.16 2.85 6.96 96.25 2.28 41.00 45.00 7.72 11.49 0.48 2.73 14.64 779.14 0.92 871.53 640.52 804.71 157.02 350.53 525.80 MSE