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Pom Save Aswer An operator estimates the probability of success of a particular well is 0.35. If drilled, the dry-hole cost is $150M, while if
Pom Save Aswer An operator estimates the probability of success of a particular well is 0.35. If drilled, the dry-hole cost is $150M, while if the well is successful the NPV is expected to be $600M. If the well is farmed out, there is no dry-hole risk and the NPV if successful is expected to be $50M. The operator's risk preference can be modeled with the utility function 1-e-X/R with R=$475M. The decision is to drill or farm out. What is the expected utility of this decision? Your answer must be correct to within +/- 0.001
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