Table below gives information about the cubed meat sales of a butcher through November $2016$ October $2017.$ Estimate the next month$$s $($November $2017)$ forecasted sales value by using the techniques mentioned below:

Period Sales $($kg$)$

$2016$ November $20$

December $21$

$2017$ January $15$

February $14$

March $13$

April $16$

May $17$

June $18$

July $20$

August $20$

September $21$

October $23$

a$)$ Na$$ve method

b$)3-$month moving average

c$)$ Exponential smoothing with alpha $0\mathrm{.}3$ and forecast value $18\mathrm{.}2$ for November $2016.$

d$)$ Use RMSE model and decide which technique $($simple moving average or exponential$)$ is better? Briefly explain.

e$)$ Plot the monthly data, moving averages and exponential smoothing estimates. Briefly explain the pattern.

f$)$ Use trend linear model to forecast next two months. Briefly explain.

g$)$ Determine the correlation coefficient, coefficient determination and standard deviation. Briefly explain.Table below gives information about the cubed meat sales of a butcher through November $2016$ October $2017.$ Estimate the next month$$s $($November $2017)$ forecasted sales value by using the techniques mentioned below:

Period Sales $($kg$)$

$2016$ November $20$

December $21$

$2017$ January $15$

February $14$

March $13$

April $16$

May $17$

June $18$

July $20$

August $20$

September $21$

October $23$

a$)$ Na$$ve method

b$)3-$month moving average

c$)$ Exponential smoothing with alpha $0\mathrm{.}3$ and forecast value $18\mathrm{.}2$ for November $2016.$

d$)$ Use RMSE model and decide which technique $($simple moving average or exponential$)$ is better? Briefly explain.

e$)$ Plot the monthly data, moving averages and exponential smoothing estimates. Briefly explain the pattern.

f$)$ Use trend linear model to forecast next two months. Briefly explain.

g$)$ Determine the correlation coefficient, coefficient determination and standard deviation. Briefly explain.