The bakery produces about 5,000 pies a month selling them for between $3.00 to a little over $4.00 a pie. The type of pie determines the price, but we will not be concerned with the type of pie in this case study, just in the amount of pies that the company should produce during January 2016. We have information about their production for the entire year of 2015, but Robin is working toward showing her father that using the correct forecasting technique he can estimate his production for any month. Later in this case study you will be combining the cost of the pies and the number produced to come up with a production schedule, but for right now you will be concentrating on the number of pies for the month of January1. The production for the entire year is found below. Review it before you attempt this case study. Robin is off at school right now and has asked you, her close friend, to help with a preliminary report on various forecasting techniques and concepts. So this is your chance to help her, and make a few dollars in return for your efforts2. Remember, her dad does not understand statistics, so whatever you explain, be sure that he can understand it, and that your description is complete. Part 1. The Forecasting Techniques 1 By the way, this month has already passed and Robin knows the actual production for the month of January, but she wants to prove to her dad that forecasting works, so after this is all over she will review the actual production with the forecasted production with him. 2 She has offered you $1,500 to help her, so make it a good report. Robin has tried out a number of techniques that she thinks will work well at the bakery. While she knows that there are other forecasting techniques (she has a very competent statistics professor at FLNWS), but she wants to keep the techniques simple and easy to understand. Robin needs to help her dad go through the various forecasting planning steps, but she has not done this yet, so you will have to help her.3 Based on the five (5) steps in creating a forecast, help Bill Flours by presenting him with suggestions that walk him through each of these steps. Remember, Bill is not a statistician, so help him with common English terms, (and define any uncommon ones) and go through each of these steps with him so that he can understand what they mean. Step 1: Define the Problem to be solved Step 2: Gather Statistical and Other Data Step 3: Look for Patterns in the Data or Outliers Step 4: Select a Forecasting Model to Use4 Step 5: Evaluate the Results of the Forecasting Model and Apply the Results Part 2. On her last vacation Robin used five different techniques to show her dad how this forecasting works. Your first job will be to explain these techniques to her dad. 3 Remember you learned these planning techniques way back in Week 4, slides 9 through 14. Go there to refresh your memory as to what is required to accomplish in this planning. 4 Here you may discuss in general what are common forecasting techniques. For each of these techniques explain (1) what the technique is, (2) how does it work and then (3) what the results mean. You only need to explain the MAD and the MSE once, but make sure that Bill can understand what you are telling him, then at the end of this section compare and contrast these different forecasting techniques and recommend that he consider adopting one (and only one) to use as a possible forecasting technique. Be sure to explain your reasons for this decision. Type your responses in the following section, but remember to explain these results completely within each section. 6. The Last Value Forecasting Technique 7. The Averaging Forecasting Technique 8. The Moving Average Forecasting Technique (3MA) 9. The Exponential Smoothing Forecasting Technique with alpha = .1 10. The Exponential Smoothing Forecasting Technique with alpha = .5 11. Recommendation on which Forecasting Technique to Select and Why