You anticipate that it will take you 5 years to complete your PhD during which time you will earn a real net cash flow of $25,000 p.a. At the end of these 5 years you must decide whether to remain at the university as an academic or take up a career as a consultant.There is a 10% chance that you will enjoy great success as an academic earning a salary of$85,000 p.a., a 50% chance that you will have a moderately successful career earning a salary of $65,000 p.a. and a 40% chance that you will have an unsuccessful academic career earning a salary of only $45,000 p.a. If you decide to become a consultant then it will initially cost you $100,000 to set up your business and there is an 80% chance of generating $60,000 p.a. and a 20% chance of generating $120,000 p.a..

If you decide not do a PhD and instead become a consultant immediately, there is a 60% chance that you will earn $70,000 p.a. and a 40% chance that you will earn $50,000 p.a. over the remainder of your working life.

Assume that all cash flows (other than those specified otherwise) occur at year-end, are expressed in real terms (that is in terms of purchasing power today) and that the real opportunity cost of capital is 10%.

You are to assume that for personal (as opposed to financial) reasons, you have decided to do a PhD. Using the decision tree approach, estimate the value of the option associated with not having to stay in academia after you acquire your PhD.