ACTIVITY	DESCRIPTION	OPTIMISTIC DURATION	MOST LIKELY DURATION	PESSIMISTIC DURATION	IMMEDIATE PREDECESSOR
A	Set up the project acquisition team	1	2	3
B	Write down the software requirements	1	2	3	A
C	Develop a contractor evaluation grid that will be used to evaluate proposal	0.5	1	1.5	B
D	Identify and select potential contractors	0.5	1	1.5	A
E	Develop and send out request for proposals to potential contractors	3	4	5	B,D
F	Audit candidate contractors, select one contractor, negotiate and sign an agreement	1	2	3	C,E
G	Prepare the definition of functional specifications	3	5	7	F
H	Develop a software testing plan	1	2	3	G
I	Software customization phase I	10	12	14	G
J	Purchase and Install hardware	1	2	3	G
K	Test the first release	0.5	1	1.5	H,I,J
L	Develop a training plan for key users	0.5	1	1.5	K
M	Software customization phase II	4	6	8	K
N	Test the second release	0.5	1	1.5	M
O	Train Key users	1	2	3	L,N
P	Software customization phase III	1.5	3	4.5	N
Q	Test the final release	1	2	3	P
R	Software deployment and project sign-off	2	4	6	Q

1. Calculate the Expected activity time,

2. Develop the Network diagram using the Expected activity time and use PERT Analysis to know the mean and Sd of the project.

3. Based on these estimates and the resultant expected project duration of 44 weeks. The executive committee wants to know what is the probability of completing the project before a scheduled time of 46 weeks?

4. What is the probability that the project lasts more than 46 weeks?

5. What would be the completion time under which for the project has 85% probability of completing?

6. How do you measure project risk exposure? Explain and propose ways to reduce the project risk exposure.