Question 1 Consider the project data shown in Appendix A. Over the last 15 similar projects risk (R1) appeared in task A 5 times, resulting to an increase of task A duration by 7 weeks. Similarly, risk (R2) appears during task G with a probability of 35%, inctcasing the duration of task G by 5 weeks. Assume any further data you need for cach task and illustrate your calculations as required depending on the questions below. Please answer the following. a) Design the project's network on the arc. b) Which is the most severe risk? c) Calculate the Risk Reduction Leverage for Risk (R1). d) If risk R2 happens, how will it affect the successful completion of the project? c) How long will it take to complete the project assuming a probability of 95%? Appendix A Consider the following the tasks' sequence of a project, as shown in table-l. Tasks / Events Sequence A(1,2) 1(7,8) B(1,3) J (6,8) C(2,7) K(6,9) D (2.5) L (9,10) (3,5) M (8,10) F (3,4) N (7,11) G(5,6) O (10,11) H(4,6) Table 1: Project tasks' sequence, You may also wish to use, the following standard (Z) normal distribution table as shown 2. 0,00 0,01 0,02 0,03 0,04 0,05 0,06 0,07 0,00 0,00 0.0 0.50000 0.50389 0,5078 0.61197 0.51595 0.619840,62392 0.52790 0,53160 0,63506 0.1093848 0.54367 0,54776 0,56172 0.56667 4.64520,94356 0,56749067142 08783 0,3 0,61791 0.62172 0,62552 0,62930 0.63307 0,623 0,64058 0,61409 0,64431 0.64803 0,65173 0,4 0,66542 0.698 10 0,66276 0,66640 0.67003 0,67364 0,67724 0,68082 1.68430 0,687113 0,5 0,69146 0,69497 0.69847 0,70194 0.70540 0,708B4 0,71226 0,71566 071904 0,72240 0,6 0.72575 0.72807 0,73237 0,73565 0.738910,74215 0,745370,74857 0,75175 0,75490 0.7 0.75804 0.76115 0.76424 0.76730 0.77035 0.77337 0.77637 0.77935 0.76230 0.78524 0,81057 0,61327 eco 0103 0,793190.7967379955 0.80234 0,80511 0.80785 0.81852 59 0,82121 0,62391 0,020300020010,831470.83398 0.83848 0,83891 1.0 0.94134 0.84.375 0.84614 0.B4B49 0.85083 0,85314 0.85543 0,85769 0.858193 081214 1.1 0.86433 ASD 0.85854 0.87076 0.87286 0.87493 0.67698 D.87900 88100 0,88298 12 0.88493 0.8688 0,88877 0,89065 089251 0,89435 0,69617 0,89796 0,89973 0,90147 13 0.80320 0.90490 0,90653 0.90624 090988 091149 0,91308 0.91466 091621 0,91774 14 0.91924 0.92073 0,92220 0,82384 0.92507 0,92847 0,92765 0,92822 0,93058 0,93189 1.5 0.83318 098148 093574 0.53699 0.93822 093913 091083 0.94178 091285 091408 1.7 0.86543 0.95837 0,95720 0,85618 0.96907 0,95964 0,98080 0,96164 0.96246 0.98327 1.0 0,84520 0.94830 0,94738 0.84845 0,94950 0,85053 0,85154 0.96254 0,95352 0,95449 1,8 0,964070,96465 0,966620,66638 0,96712 0,967640,9666 0,969260.96995 0,97062 1,9 0,87128 0.97193 0,972157 0,97320 0.97381 0,97441 0,97500 0,971568 0,97615 0,97670 2,0 0,97725 0.97779 0,97831 0,97892 0.97932 0,97962 0,99020 0,98077 0,98124 0,98169 2.1 0.88214 0.96257 0,9830 0,98341 0.98382 0,95422 0,99481 0,98500 0.98537 098574 23 oue Jo 0.90345 0,90679 0.00713 0,98745 096778 0,89809 0,90040 0.96970 0,98899 23 0,Hai 20 | 0,93456 | 09HH | 0,69010 | 1,99018 | 0978 10890 08971981 099158 2,4 0,99180 0,99202 0,99224 0,99245 0.99268 0,992B6 0,99306 0,99324 0,99343 0,99361 2,5 0,89379 0.99398 0.99413 0,89430 0.49445 0,99461 0,94477 0,99492 0,99506 0,99620 2,6 0,09534 0.999470,99550 0,88573 0.99585 0,99599 0,9906090,996210.99632 0.99645 2,7 0,90663 0.519464 0,99674 0,6683 0.99693 0,99702 0,997110.99720 0.997780,99736 2.8 0.99744 0.997520,99760 0,99767 0.997740,997810,99788 0.99795 0.998010,99807 0.99836 0,99646 0,99874 120.99SIOS GASTOSO.9969.89851 0.998 0.09861 0.99882 0.96BG to go DOORS 1.99898 0 3.1 0.89803 0,98906 0,98910 0,89813 0.99916 0,98918 0,898210.99824 0.98928 0,89929 3.2 0.89831 0.99934 0,99938 0.89838 0.99940 0.98942 0,89944 0.99846 0.98948 0.99950 3.3 0.99952 0.98953 0.99955 0.69857 0.99958 0,98960 0,89981 0.99862 0.98964 0.99985 3,4 0,99966 0.99968 0.99979 0.99970 0.99971 098972 098973 0.99974 0.99975 0,99976 3,5 9.99977 0.99978 0,99978 0.999796.99980 0,99961 0,99981 0.99982 099983 0,99983 3.8 0.99884 0.99985 0.99965 0.99986 0.99986 0.989 0.29987 0,99988 0,99968 0,99989 3.7 0.89929 0.98990 0,99980 0,89890 0,99991 0,96901 0.89992 0.89892 0.9997992 0.99992 3.8 0.89893 0.99993 0.99983 0.69894 0.99994 0.gpged 0,6994 0,99995 0.96995 0.99995 3.9 0.99995 0.98995 0.99986 0.89896 0.99998 0,98908 0,99996 0.99996 0.96997 0,99997 4,0 0,99997099997 0,09907 0,09997 0.99997 0,96967 0,999 0,99996 0,99999 0,99990 Question 1 Consider the project data shown in Appendix A. Over the last 15 similar projects risk (R1) appeared in task A 5 times, resulting to an increase of task A duration by 7 weeks. Similarly, risk (R2) appears during task G with a probability of 35%, inctcasing the duration of task G by 5 weeks. Assume any further data you need for cach task and illustrate your calculations as required depending on the questions below. Please answer the following. a) Design the project's network on the arc. b) Which is the most severe risk? c) Calculate the Risk Reduction Leverage for Risk (R1). d) If risk R2 happens, how will it affect the successful completion of the project? c) How long will it take to complete the project assuming a probability of 95%? Appendix A Consider the following the tasks' sequence of a project, as shown in table-l. Tasks / Events Sequence A(1,2) 1(7,8) B(1,3) J (6,8) C(2,7) K(6,9) D (2.5) L (9,10) (3,5) M (8,10) F (3,4) N (7,11) G(5,6) O (10,11) H(4,6) Table 1: Project tasks' sequence, You may also wish to use, the following standard (Z) normal distribution table as shown 2. 0,00 0,01 0,02 0,03 0,04 0,05 0,06 0,07 0,00 0,00 0.0 0.50000 0.50389 0,5078 0.61197 0.51595 0.619840,62392 0.52790 0,53160 0,63506 0.1093848 0.54367 0,54776 0,56172 0.56667 4.64520,94356 0,56749067142 08783 0,3 0,61791 0.62172 0,62552 0,62930 0.63307 0,623 0,64058 0,61409 0,64431 0.64803 0,65173 0,4 0,66542 0.698 10 0,66276 0,66640 0.67003 0,67364 0,67724 0,68082 1.68430 0,687113 0,5 0,69146 0,69497 0.69847 0,70194 0.70540 0,708B4 0,71226 0,71566 071904 0,72240 0,6 0.72575 0.72807 0,73237 0,73565 0.738910,74215 0,745370,74857 0,75175 0,75490 0.7 0.75804 0.76115 0.76424 0.76730 0.77035 0.77337 0.77637 0.77935 0.76230 0.78524 0,81057 0,61327 eco 0103 0,793190.7967379955 0.80234 0,80511 0.80785 0.81852 59 0,82121 0,62391 0,020300020010,831470.83398 0.83848 0,83891 1.0 0.94134 0.84.375 0.84614 0.B4B49 0.85083 0,85314 0.85543 0,85769 0.858193 081214 1.1 0.86433 ASD 0.85854 0.87076 0.87286 0.87493 0.67698 D.87900 88100 0,88298 12 0.88493 0.8688 0,88877 0,89065 089251 0,89435 0,69617 0,89796 0,89973 0,90147 13 0.80320 0.90490 0,90653 0.90624 090988 091149 0,91308 0.91466 091621 0,91774 14 0.91924 0.92073 0,92220 0,82384 0.92507 0,92847 0,92765 0,92822 0,93058 0,93189 1.5 0.83318 098148 093574 0.53699 0.93822 093913 091083 0.94178 091285 091408 1.7 0.86543 0.95837 0,95720 0,85618 0.96907 0,95964 0,98080 0,96164 0.96246 0.98327 1.0 0,84520 0.94830 0,94738 0.84845 0,94950 0,85053 0,85154 0.96254 0,95352 0,95449 1,8 0,964070,96465 0,966620,66638 0,96712 0,967640,9666 0,969260.96995 0,97062 1,9 0,87128 0.97193 0,972157 0,97320 0.97381 0,97441 0,97500 0,971568 0,97615 0,97670 2,0 0,97725 0.97779 0,97831 0,97892 0.97932 0,97962 0,99020 0,98077 0,98124 0,98169 2.1 0.88214 0.96257 0,9830 0,98341 0.98382 0,95422 0,99481 0,98500 0.98537 098574 23 oue Jo 0.90345 0,90679 0.00713 0,98745 096778 0,89809 0,90040 0.96970 0,98899 23 0,Hai 20 | 0,93456 | 09HH | 0,69010 | 1,99018 | 0978 10890 08971981 099158 2,4 0,99180 0,99202 0,99224 0,99245 0.99268 0,992B6 0,99306 0,99324 0,99343 0,99361 2,5 0,89379 0.99398 0.99413 0,89430 0.49445 0,99461 0,94477 0,99492 0,99506 0,99620 2,6 0,09534 0.999470,99550 0,88573 0.99585 0,99599 0,9906090,996210.99632 0.99645 2,7 0,90663 0.519464 0,99674 0,6683 0.99693 0,99702 0,997110.99720 0.997780,99736 2.8 0.99744 0.997520,99760 0,99767 0.997740,997810,99788 0.99795 0.998010,99807 0.99836 0,99646 0,99874 120.99SIOS GASTOSO.9969.89851 0.998 0.09861 0.99882 0.96BG to go DOORS 1.99898 0 3.1 0.89803 0,98906 0,98910 0,89813 0.99916 0,98918 0,898210.99824 0.98928 0,89929 3.2 0.89831 0.99934 0,99938 0.89838 0.99940 0.98942 0,89944 0.99846 0.98948 0.99950 3.3 0.99952 0.98953 0.99955 0.69857 0.99958 0,98960 0,89981 0.99862 0.98964 0.99985 3,4 0,99966 0.99968 0.99979 0.99970 0.99971 098972 098973 0.99974 0.99975 0,99976 3,5 9.99977 0.99978 0,99978 0.999796.99980 0,99961 0,99981 0.99982 099983 0,99983 3.8 0.99884 0.99985 0.99965 0.99986 0.99986 0.989 0.29987 0,99988 0,99968 0,99989 3.7 0.89929 0.98990 0,99980 0,89890 0,99991 0,96901 0.89992 0.89892 0.9997992 0.99992 3.8 0.89893 0.99993 0.99983 0.69894 0.99994 0.gpged 0,6994 0,99995 0.96995 0.99995 3.9 0.99995 0.98995 0.99986 0.89896 0.99998 0,98908 0,99996 0.99996 0.96997 0,99997 4,0 0,99997099997 0,09907 0,09997 0.99997 0,96967 0,999 0,99996 0,99999 0,99990