Question
You are considering investing in a stock that is currently selling for $10. You estimate the following probabilities and outcomes for the stock for the
You are considering investing in a stock that is currently selling for $10. You estimate the following probabilities and outcomes for the stock for the coming year:
Outcome | Probability | Price | Dividend |
Mild recession | 10% | $8 | $0 |
Normal | 20% | $10 | $2 |
Strong economy | 30% | $11 | $2 |
Boom | 40% | $12 | $2.50 |
1) What is your expected return over the next year? (hint: find the weighted average of your holding period returns, and dont forget your dividends)
2)You are also considering investing in a bond that earns 6% in a mild recession, 5.5% in normal, 4% in strong economy, and 2% in a boom. Assume the same probabilities for each scenario as are given above. The expected return of the bonds returns is 3.7%, and the standard deviation is 1.54%. What is the correlation between the stock and bonds returns? (hint: you will need to solve for the standard deviation of the stocks returns.)
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