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quantitative analysis for management

Questions and Answers of Quantitative Analysis For Management

Which of the following describes the probability of event B given that event A has occurred?a. continuousb. marginalc. simpled. jointe. conditional
In the normal distribution, 95.45% of the population lies withina. 1 standard deviation of the mean.b. 2 standard deviations of the mean.c. 3 standard deviations of the mean.d. 4 standard deviations
If a normal distribution has a mean of 200 and a standard deviation of 10, 99.7% of the population falls within what range of values?a. 170–230b. 180–220c. 190–210d. 175–225e. 170–220
If P1A2 = 0.3, P1B2 = 0.2, and P1A and B2 = 0, what can be said about events A and B?a. They are independent.b. They are mutually exclusive.c. They are posterior probabilities.d. None of the above.
Describe the classical method to determine probability with an example.
A student taking Management Science 301 at East Haven University will receive one of the five possible grades for the course: A, B, C, D, or F. The distribution of grades over the past 2 years is as
Dead Pan, a video game developer, has a 70%chance of developing a profitable video game. The company’s management is considering a new game and assesses the probability of developing a profitable
The lost Israeli soldier mentioned in Problem
decides to rest for a few minutes before entering the desert oasis he has just found. Closing his eyes, he dozes off for 15 minutes, wakes, and walks toward the center of the oasis. The first person
Compute the probability of “loaded die given that a 3 was rolled,” as shown in the example in Section 2.3, this time using the general form of Bayes’ Theorem from Equation 2-5.
Which of the following are probability distributions?Why? (a) RANDOM VARIABLE X PROBABILITY 2 0.1 -1 0 I 2 0.2 0.3 0.25 0.15 (b) RANDOM VARIABLE Y PROBABILITY 1 1.1 1.5 0.2 2 2.5 3 0.3 0.25 -1.25
Harrington Health Food stocks 5 loaves of Neutro-Bread. The probability distribution for the sales of Neutro-Bread is listed in the following table. How many loaves will Harrington sell on average?
What are the expected value and variance of the following probability distribution? RANDOM VARIABLE X PROBABILITY 1 0.05 23 0.05 3 0.10 4 0.10 5 0.15 678 6 0.15 7 0.25 0.15
Armstrong Faber produces a standard number-two pencil called Ultra-Lite. Since Chuck Armstrong started Armstrong Faber, sales have grown steadily.With the increase in the price of wood products,
A construction company has taken up a project to build a high-rise office complex. The time required to complete a construction project is normally distributed with a mean of 80 weeks and a standard
Data for a particular subdivision near Greenville indicate that the average price per square foot for a house is $100 with a standard deviation of $5, following a normal distribution.(a) What is the
The Department of Motor Vehicles (DMV) of a city can service customers at a rate of 20 per hour when it comes to license renewals. The service time follows an exponential distribution. What is the
A local company that provides home repair services for appliances has two repairmen who make all of the home repairs. The company sends Repairman D on 70% of all jobs because the likelihood of him
Policy Pollsters is a market research firm specializing in political polls. Records indicate in past elections, when a candidate was elected, Policy Pollsters had accurately predicted this 80% of the
For each of the following F values, determine whether the probability indicated is greater than or less than 5%:(a) P1F3,4 7 6.82(b) P1F7,3 7 3.62(c) P1F20,20 7 2.62(d) P1F7,5 7 5.12(e) P1F7,5 6 5.12
For each of the following F values, determine whether the probability indicated is greater than or less than 1%:(a) P1F5,4 7 142(b) P1F6,3 7 302(c) P1F10,12 7 4.22(d) P1F2,3 7 352(e) P1F2,3 6 352
Nite Time Inn has a toll-free telephone number so that customers can call at any time to make a reservation.A typical call takes about 4 minutes to complete, and the time required follows an
In decision theory terminology, a course of action or a strategy that may be chosen by a decision maker is calleda. a payoff.b. an alternative.c. a state of nature.d. none of the above.
In decision theory, we call the payoffs resulting from each possible combination of alternatives and outcomesa. marginal values.b. conditional values.c. conditional probabilities.d. Bayesian values.
The three types of decision-making environments area. utility, risk, and certainty.b. utility, certainty, and uncertainty.c. utility, equity, and certainty.d. risk, certainty, and uncertainty.
Which of the following is not considered a criterion for decision making under uncertainty?a. optimisticb. pessimisticc. equally likelyd. random selection
A pessimistic decision making criterion is sometimes calleda. the maximax criterion.b. the equally likely criterion.c. the maximin criterion.d. decision making under certainty.
On a decision tree, once the tree has been drawn and the payoffs and probabilities have been placed on the tree, the analysis (computing EMVs and selecting the best alternative) is done bya. working
Utility values typically range froma. -1 to 1.b. 1 to 10.c. 0 to 1.d. 1 to 100.
It is sometimes said that those who gamble the most are the ones who can least afford to lose. These people gamble becausea. the EMV is positive.b. the EMV is negative.c. there is utility other than
Describe the structure of a payoff table.
What is the difference between the EMV and the EVPI?
What is the problem associated with using survey results?
What is a risk seeker? What is a risk avoider? How do the utility curves for these types of decision makers differ?
Kenneth Brown is the principal owner of Brown Oil, Inc. After quitting his university teaching job, Ken has been able to increase his annual salary by a factor of over
At the present time, Ken is forced to consider purchasing some more equipment for Brown Oil because of competition. His alternatives are shown in the following table:For example, if Ken purchases a
Although Ken Brown (discussed in Problem 3-17) is the principal owner of Brown Oil, his brother Bob is credited with making the company a financial success.Bob is vice president of finance. Bob
In Problem 3-22, you helped Allen Young determine the best investment strategy. Now, Allen is thinking about paying for a stock market newsletter. A friend of Allen said that these types of letters
Megley Cheese Company is a small manufacturer of several different cheese products. One of the products is a cheese spread that is sold to retail outlets.Jason Megley must decide how many cases of
In Problem 3-27, Farm Grown, Inc., has reason to believe the probabilities may not be reliable due to changing conditions. If these probabilities are ignored, what decision would be made using the
The game of roulette is popular in many casinos around the world. In Las Vegas, a typical roulette wheel has the numbers 1–36 in slots on the wheel.Half of these slots are red, and the other half
If the player bets on either red or black and that happens to be the winning color, the player wins the amount of her bet. For example, if the player bets $5 on red and wins, she is paid $5 and she
With this type of game, what is the probability that a player who bets red will win the bet? If a player bets $10 on red every time in this game (with no 00), what is the expected monetary value?(d)
Refer to Problem 3-33 for details about the game of roulette. Another bet in a roulette game is called a“straight up” bet, which means that the player is betting that the winning number will be
The Technically Techno company has several patents for a variety of different flash memory devices that are used in computers, cell phones, and a variety of other things. A competitor has recently
The physicians in Problem 3-36 have been approached by a market research firm that offers to perform a study of the market at a fee of $5,000. The market researchers claim their experience enables
John Colorado is planning to open his open music store. He initially believes that there is a 50–50 chance that his music store will be a success. John is considering doing a market research study.
Child’s Play, a producer of fast-moving consumer goods, is considering producing a new children’s soap. The company plans to commission a survey concerning the success or failure of a new
Jim Sellers has been able to estimate his utility for a number of different values. He would like to use these utility values in making the decision in Problem 3-44: U1-$80,0002 = 0, U1-$65,0002 =
Two states of nature exist for a particular situation:a good economy and a poor economy. An economic study may be performed to obtain more information about which of these will actually occur in the
In Problem 3-37, you helped the medical professionals analyze their decision using expected monetary value as the decision criterion. This group has also assessed its utility for money: U1-$45,0002 =
In this chapter, a decision tree was developed for John Thompson (see Figure 3.5 for the complete decision tree analysis). After completing the analysis, John was not completely sure that he is
Sue Reynolds has to decide if she should get information(at a cost of $20,000) to help her decide whether to invest in a retail store. If she gets the information, there is a 0.6 probability that the
A judgmental forecasting technique that uses decision makers, staff personnel, and respondents to determine a forecast is calleda. exponential smoothing.b. the Delphi method.c. jury of executive
Which of the following is considered a causal method of forecasting?a. moving averageb. Holt’s methodc. Delphi methodd. None of the above
A graphical plot with sales on the Y-axis and time on the X-axis is called aa. scatter diagram.b. trend projection.c. radar chart.d. line graph.
Which of the following is a time-series model?a. the Delphi modelb. regression analysisc. exponential smoothingd. multiple regression
Which of the following is not a component of a time series?a. seasonalityb. causal variationsc. trendd. random variations
Which of the following methods indicates whether the forecast tends to be too high or too low?a. MADb. MSEc. decompositiond. bias
Which of the following methods gives an indication of the percentage of forecast error?a. MADb. MSEc. MAPEd. decomposition
When is the exponential smoothing model equivalent to the naïve forecasting model?a. a = 0b. a = 0.5c. a = 1d. never
If the Q1 demand for a particular year is 200 and the seasonal index is 0.85, what is the deseasonalized demand value for Q1?a. 170b. 185c. 215d. 235.29
A positive tracking signal for a particular set of demand forecasts indicates thata. demand is greater than the forecast.b. demand is less than the forecast.c. demand is equal to the forecast.d. the
The computer monitoring of tracking signals and selfadjustment is referred to asa. exponential smoothing.b. adaptive smoothing.c. trend projections.d. trend smoothing.
Describe briefly the causal and qualitative forecasting models.
Describe the structure of a scatter diagram for a time series.
Explain why most forecasting error measures use either the absolute or the square of the error.
What are moving averages used for? Explain with an example.
Explain why, in the exponential smoothing forecasting method, the larger the value of the smoothing constant,a, the better the forecast will be in allowing the user to see rapid changes in the
Develop a 4-month moving average forecast for Wallace Garden Supply, and compute the MAD. A 3-month moving average forecast was developed in the section on moving averages in Table 5.2.
Develop a trend line for the demand for fertilizer in Problem 5-17, using any computer software.
Daily high temperatures (°F) in the city of Chillville for the last week have been: 93, 94, 93, 95, 92, 86, and 98 (yesterday).(a) Forecast the high temperature today using a three-day moving
A college student has just completed her junior year.The following table summarizes her grade-point average(GPA) for each of the past nine quarters:(a) Forecast the student’s GPA for the fall
Sales of Cool-Man air conditioners have grown steadily during the past 5 years:The sales manager had predicted, before the business started, that year 1’s sales would be 410 air conditioners.Using
Using smoothing constants of 0.6 and 0.9, develop forecasts for the sales of Cool-Man air conditioners(see Problem 5-22).
What effect did the smoothing constant have on the forecast for Cool-Man air conditioners? (See Problems 5-22 and 5-23.) Which smoothing constant gives the more accurate forecast?
Use a 3-year moving average forecasting model to forecast the sales of Cool-Man air conditioners (see Problem 5-22).
Using the trend projection method, develop a forecasting model for the sales of Cool-Man air conditioners(see Problem 5-22).
Would you use exponential smoothing with a smoothing constant of 0.3, a 3-year moving average, or a trend line to predict the sales of Cool-Man air conditioners?Refer to Problems 5-22, 5-25, and 5-26.
Passenger miles flown on Northeast Airlines, a commuter firm serving the Boston hub, are as follows for the past 12 weeks:(a) Assuming an initial forecast for week 1 of 17,000 miles, use exponential
Emergency calls to Winter Park, Florida’s 911 system for the past 24 weeks are as follows:(a) Compute the exponentially smoothed forecast of calls for each week. Assume an initial forecast of 50
How would the forecast for week 25 of the previous problem change if the initial forecast was 40 instead of 50? How would the forecast for week 25 change if the forecast for week 1 was assumed to be
Consulting income at Kate Walsh Associates for the period February–July has been as follows:Use exponential smoothing to forecast August’s income.Assume that the initial forecast for February is
Resolve Problem 5-33 with a = 0.3. Using MAD, which smoothing constant provides a better forecast?
A major source of revenue in Texas is a state sales tax on certain types of goods and services. Data are compiled, and the state comptroller uses them to project future revenues for the state budget.
Using the data in Problem 5-35, develop a multiple regression model to predict sales (with both trend and seasonal components), using dummy variables to incorporate the seasonal factor into the
Trevor Harty, an avid mountain biker, always wanted to start a business selling top-of-the-line mountain bikes and other outdoor supplies. A little over 6 years ago, he and a silent partner opened a
The following table gives the average monthly exchange rate between the U.S. dollar and the euro for 2009. It shows that 1 euro was equivalent to 1.289 U.S. dollars in January 2009. Develop a trend
For the data in Problem 5-44, develop an exponential smoothing model with a smoothing constant of 0.3. Using the MSE, compare this with the model in Problem 5-44.
Network models such as PERT and CPM are useda. to plan large and complex projects.b. to schedule large and complex projects.c. to monitor large and complex projects.d. to control large and complex
The primary difference between PERT and CPM is thata. PERT uses one time estimate.b. CPM has three time estimates.c. PERT has three time estimates.d. with CPM, it is assumed that all activities can
Which of the following is the latest finish time (LF)?a. the latest time an activity can end without delaying the entire projectb. the latest time an activity can begin without delaying the entire
The latest finish time for an activity is found during the backward pass through the network. The latest finish time is equal toa. the largest LF of the activities for which it is an immediate
When PERT is used and probabilities are found, one of the assumptions that is made is thata. all activities are on the critical path.b. activity times are independent.c. all activities have the same
In PERT, the time estimate b representsa. the most optimistic time.b. the most likely time.c. the most pessimistic time.d. the expected time.e. none of the above.
In PERT, slack time equalsa. ES + t.b. LS - ES.c. 0.d. EF - ES.e. none of the above.
What is the first step of project crashing with linear programming?a. determine the objective functionb. define decision variable for the linear programc. determine crash constraintsd. determine
The critical path is thea. shortest path in a network.b. longest path in a network.c. path with the smallest variance.d. path with the largest variance.e. none of the above.
If the project completion time is normally distributed and the due date for the project is greater than the expected completion time, then the probability that the project will be finished by the due
If activity A is not on the critical path, then the slack for A will equala. LF - EF.b. EF - ES.c. 0.d. all of the above.

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