5.54 Independent or dependent trials and probability: Gamblers often falsely predict the outcome of a future trial based on the outcome of previous trials. When trials are independent, the outcome of a future trial cannot be predicted based on the outcomes of previous trials. For each of the following examples, (1) state whether the trials are independent or dependent and (2) explain why. In addition, (3) state whether it is possible that the quote is accurate or whether it is definitely fallacious, explaining how the independence or dependence of trials influences accuracy.

a. You are playing Monopoly and have rolled a pair of sixes in 4 out of your last 10 rolls of the dice. You say, “Cool. I’m on a roll and will get sixes again.”

b. You are an Ohio State University football fan and are sad because the team has lost two games in a row. You say, “That is really unusual; the Buckeyes are doomed this season. That’s what happens with lots of early-season injuries.”

c. You have a 20-year-old car that has trouble starting from time to time. It has started every day this week, and now it’s Friday. You say, “That’s it. It’s been reliable all week, and even though I did get a tune-up last week, today is bound to be the day it fails me.”